The Effect of Increased Connectivity on Serial Regime Change

Abstract

Much has been written on how the increase of connectivity through the internet and other media has facilitated successful changes in government such as the Arab Spring. However, regime change, even when essentially peaceful, occurs in a dynamically complex environment that renders often counterintuitive results. For example, when a government falls to an insurgency (peaceful or otherwise), the establishment of the new regime is often not the end of the story. In particular, new regimes often find themselves faced by their own insurrections and may very likely be overthrown by them. Thus begins a domino-like chain of serial insurrections and regime changes, which typically create immense havoc. Much has been written on why traditional governments fall to insurgencies in the first place and how connectivity can promote this. However, this paper uses the methodology of system dynamics to posit that increases in connectivity may not only increase the probability of overthrowing a traditional regime, it may also increase the likelihood of a series of rapid, successful insurgencies that result in multiple regime changes. We also examine how various interactions between the regime (s) and populace lead to other unforeseen results. One finding that stands out is that connectivity may very well increase the likelihood that the end result of a series of insurgencies will be less popular among the citizenry than the regime that was initially overthrown.