Abstract
ᅟThis paper investigates whether immigration shocks have a causal effect on native fertility patterns. It uses a natural experiment, exploiting the large, unexpected and localised immigration of Cuban nationals to the Miami area in the USA in 1980 to examine the fertility consequences for non-Cuban Miami women. Using a synthetic control estimator and an extended individual difference-in-differences analysis, the results from this study indicate that the immigration shock had an overall negative, though short-lived, impact on the fertility of Miami women. In addition, fertility effects are found to vary by homeownership: While the immigration shock had a considerable negative impact on the fertility of women living in rented homes, it had no effect on those living in owned homes. This differential impact was likely due to the rise in local housing rents accompanying immigration, making childbearing less affordable for those living in rented homes.JEL Classification: J61, J13
Highlights
1 Introduction This paper examines whether immigration shocks have a causal effect on native fertility patterns
A synthesis of the research conclusions from studies exploring the effects of immigration on local destination markets with those investigating how fertility outcomes respond to economic conditions reveals that it is possible for native fertility outcomes to be altered by such inflows
I apply the traditional difference-indifferences estimator with inference techniques based on individual-level data. Both lead to the same conclusion: The immigration shock led to short-term declines in native childbearing activity in 1983 and in 1986, these declines were compensated by fertility increases in later years
Summary
This paper examines whether immigration shocks have a causal effect on native fertility patterns. A synthesis of the research conclusions from studies exploring the effects of immigration on local destination markets with those investigating how fertility outcomes respond to economic conditions reveals that it is possible for native fertility outcomes to be altered by such inflows. There are two main research questions which this paper seeks to address: Firstly, do immigration shocks affect native childbearing decisions? I apply the traditional difference-indifferences estimator with inference techniques based on individual-level data Both lead to the same conclusion: The immigration shock led to short-term declines in native childbearing activity in 1983 and in 1986, these declines were compensated by fertility increases in later years. The short-term declines in native childbearing activity after the immigration influx were possibly due to individuals delaying their childbearing plans
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