THE EFFECT OF HUSBAND'S JOB DISPLACEMENT ON THE TIMING AND SPACING OF BIRTHS IN THE UNITED STATES

Abstract

I use husband's job displacement as an exogenous shock to identify the effect of income on the timing and spacing of births. Gradual adjustment of fertility to income shock is considered in life‐cycle model with uncertainty. Flexible hazard model, estimated jointly for the first three births, allows household's fertility to be affected not only in the period of displacement but also before and after. General displacements and layoffs have negative log‐run effect on the timing and spacing of only the first and the third births. The effect persists with nonparametric controls for woman‐ and transition‐specific heterogeneity, and after robustness checks. (JEL J13, J63, C41)