Abstract

<p>With the advent of global warming, forests are becoming an increasingly important carbon sink that can mitigate the negative effects of climate change. An understanding of the carbon dynamics of forests is, therefore, crucial to implement appropriate forest management strategies and to meet the expectations of the Paris Agreement with respect to international reporting schemes. One of the most frequently used models for simulating the dynamics of carbon stocks in forests is the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3). We applied this model in our study to evaluate the effects of harvesting on the carbon sink dynamics in Slovenian forests. Five harvesting scenarios were defined: (1) business as usual (BAU), (2) harvesting in line with current forest management plans (PLAN), (3) more frequent natural hazards (HAZ), (4) high harvest (HH) and (5) low harvest (LH). The simulated forest carbon dynamics revealed important differences between the harvesting scenarios. Relative to the base year of 2014, by 2050 the carbon stock in above-ground biomass is projected to increase by 28.4% (LH), 19% (BAU), 10% (PLAN), 6.5% (HAZ) and 1.2% (HH). Slovenian forests can be expected to be a carbon sink until harvesting exceeds approximately 9 million m<sup>3</sup> annually, which is close to the calculated total annual volume increase. Our results are also important in terms of Forest Reference Levels (FRL), which will take place in European Union (EU) member states in the period 2021-2025. For Slovenia, the FRL was set to –3270.2 Gg CO<sub>2</sub> eq/year, meaning that the total timber harvested should not exceed 6 million m<sup>3</sup> annually.</p>

Highlights

  • Global forests represent one of the most important terrestrial carbon stocks [1] and play an important role in global carbon cycles, due to their carbon sequestration capacity and positive influence on water balance and temperature regulation [2]

  • An increase in carbon stocks in above-ground biomass is generally expected, as the anticipated harvesting levels are mainly lower than the annual volume increment in Slovenian forests of approximately 9 million m3 [9]

  • National reports in the framework of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are based on the National Forest Inventory (NFI) [42–44], which is a different data source than that used in our study

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Summary

Introduction

Global forests represent one of the most important terrestrial carbon stocks [1] and play an important role in global carbon cycles, due to their carbon sequestration capacity and positive influence on water balance and temperature regulation [2]. Global carbon stocks in forests are estimated at 861 ± 66 Pg C, of which 44% represents forest soils, 42% forest biomass, 8% dead wood biomass and 5% litterfall. Over a half of the carbon stocks in forests can be found in tropical forests (55%), followed by boreal (32%) and temperate forests (14%) [3]. Greenhouse gas emissions and removals by forests are reported annually by countries committed to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) [4], in the framework of the land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector. This is one of five economic sectors, with the other four being energy, industrial processes and product use, agriculture and waste.

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