The effect of habitat size and predation on the time to extinction of prairie vole populations: simulation studies via SERDYCA

Abstract

We present a spatially explicit individual-based model of rodent dynamics, customized for the prairie vole species, Microtus ochrogaster. The model strives to represent the complexity of intertwining factors that determine the spatio-temporal dynamics of small rodents. It is based on trophic relationships and incorporates important features such as territorial competition, mating behavior, density-dependent predation and dispersal out of the modeled spatial region. Vegetation growth and vole fecundity are dependent on climatic components. The results of simulations show that the model correctly predicts the overall temporal dynamics of the population density. Time-series analysis shows a very good match between the periods corresponding to the peak population density frequencies predicted by the model and the ones reported in the literature. The model is used to study the relation between persistence, landscape area and predation. We use the notions of average time to extinction (ATE) and persistence frequency to quantify persistence. While the ATE decreases with decrease of area, it is a bell-shaped function of the predation level: increasing for “small” and decreasing for “large” predation levels.