The Effect of Glocal Systemic Polarity on Regional Stability

Abstract

This study is about the effect of glocal systemic polarity on regional stability. Studies on polarity and stability often focus on the relationship between global systemic polarity and stability or regional systemic polarity and stability. In these studies, it is assumed that the global systemic polarity structure penetrates all regions of the world at the same rate or the regional systemic polarity operates independently from the global systemic polarity. However, these assumptions lead to some gaps in the explanation of the relationship between polarity and stability. This study attempts to fill this gap by introducing the concept of glocal systemic polarity. This concept argues that in the relationship between polarity and stability, global systemic polarity has different degrees of influence on regions, and these different degrees affect regional stability. Therefore, it argues that in all global systems, regions on which a pole-state or pole-states develop hegemonic relations by themselves are stable, or regions on which a pole-state cannot develop hegemonic relations alone are unstable. This claim will be tested by looking at the regional distribution of the conflicts’ intensity that occurred between 1947 and 2020 in the world.