The Effect of Fore‐Arc Deformation on Shallow Earthquake Rupture Behavior in the Cascadia Subduction Zone

Abstract

AbstractWithin the fore‐arc of the Cascadia Subduction Zone, there are significant along‐strike differences in the orientation of splay faults, sediment consolidation, and fault roughness. Here, we use dynamic rupture simulations of megathrust earthquakes on different realizations of a fault system that incorporate fore‐arc properties representative of offshore Oregon and Washington to estimate how splay faults may behave in future megathrust earthquakes in Cascadia. While splay faults were activated in all of our simulations, splay orientation is a primary control on slip amplitude. Seaward vergent faults accommodate significant amounts of slip resulting in large seafloor uplift and significantly larger tsunami amplitudes. For example, our median tsunami heights including splay faults are about a factor of two larger than those that did not include splay fault deformation. We suggest that there is an urgent need to revisit existing approaches to tsunami hazard assessment in Cascadia to include the influence of splay faults.