The Effect of Fiscal Decentralization, Balanced Budget, Provincial Financial Aid, and Public Investment on Human Development Index with Population as a Moderation Variable in Regency/City Regional Government in North Sumatra Province

Abstract

This research aims to analyze the influence of Fiscal Decentralization, Balancing Funds, Provincial Financial Assistance, and Public Investment on the Human Development Index partially and simultaneously. This research also analyzes the influence of Fiscal Decentralization, Balancing Funds, Provincial Financial Assistance, and Public Investment on the Human Development Index with Population as a moderating variable. The population of this research is the Regency/City Government in North Sumatra Province, totaling 33 Regency/Cities. Data collection methods were carried out using documentation techniques using secondary data, namely APBD Realization Reports, Population Data, and Human Development Index data for 2017-2021. The sampling technique used was purposive sampling based on specific criteria. Based on these criteria, a total of 145 analysis units were obtained. The data analysis methods used in this research are descriptive statistical analysis methods, classical assumption tests, multiple linear regression analysis, sensitivity test analysis, hypothesis testing, and residual tests using SPSS version 25. This research shows that Fiscal Decentralization, Balancing Funds, Provincial Financial Assistance, and Public Investment affect the Human Development Index. Partially, fiscal decentralization and provincial financial assistance have positively affected the human development index. The Balancing Fund has a negative effect on the Human Development Index, and Public Investment does not affect the Human Development Index. This research also concludes that population is a moderating variable in strengthening and weakening the relationship between Fiscal Decentralization, Balancing Funds, Provincial Financial Assistance, and Public Investment on the Human Development Index. Keywords: fiscal decentralization, balancing funds, provincial financial assistance, public investment, human development index, population.