The Effect of Farmer-Pastoralist Violence on Income: New Survey Evidence from Nigeria’s Middle Belt States

Topher L Mcdougal,Talia Hagerty,Stone Conroy,Daniel Ogabiela,Claire-Lorentz Ugo-Ike,Lisa Inks,Caitriona Dowd

doi:10.15355/epsj.10.1.54

Topher L Mcdougal, Talia Hagerty + Show 5 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.10.1.54

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Abstract

This study estimates the relationship between violent conflict and household income in four states of Nigeria’s Middle Belt region (Benue, Kaduna, Nasarawa, and Plateau) where farmers and pastoralists routinely clash over access to farmland, grazing areas, stock routes, and water points for animals and households. Although relatively low in intensity, this form of violence is widespread, persistent, and arguably increasing in its incidence. We obtained data on income and household-level violence exposure from an original household survey administered in September 2014. Employing a negative binomial instrumental variables model, we find an inverse relation between violence and household incomes. Incomes could be increased by between 64 to 210 percent of current levels if violence related to farmer-pastoralist conflict in the four study states were reduced to near-zero. Cumulatively, we find that forgone income represents 10.2 percent of the combined official state domestic product in the study area. This is high when compared to the costs of conflict measured in other studies, even as our study takes account only of microeconomic costs. After incorporating an estimate of the size of the informal economy, the microeconomic cost of farmer-pastoralist conflict to the total economy is approximately 2.9 percent. [JEL codes: C36, D74, J17]

Highlights

Farmer-pastoralist conflict in the Middle Belt Nigeria’s ethnically and religiously diverse Middle Belt has experienced recurrent eruptions of violence over the past several decades
Disputes between pastoralists and farmers arise from disagreements over the use of land around farmland, grazing areas, stock routes, and access to water points for both animals and households
We examine income because it is a useful indicator for microeconomic development: Income is the basis of Gross National Income (GNI), raising incomes is a goal of economic development, its absence is a globally accepted indicator of poverty, and, despite difficulties in data collection, income is relatively straightforward to measure

Summary

Introduction

Farmer-pastoralist conflict in the Middle Belt Nigeria’s ethnically and religiously diverse Middle Belt has experienced recurrent eruptions of violence over the past several decades. A range of interrelated factors underlie these disputes, including increased competition for land (arguably driven by desertification, climate change, and population growth), lack of clarity around the demarcation of pasture and stock routes, and the breakdown of traditional relationships and formal agreements between farmers and pastoralists. These conflicts undermine market development and economic growth by destroying productive assets, reducing production, preventing trade, deterring investment by private sector actors, and eroding trust and social cohesion. For instance, are Christian, while most pastoralists are Muslim (see Table 1 below).

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