The Effect of External Debt, Net Exports on Exchange Rates and Indonesia's Economic Growth

Abstract

This study aims to determine the effect of Foreign Debt (X1) and Net Exports (X2) which describe exports and imports on the movement of the Rupiah exchange rate (IDR) against the US Dollar (USD) (Y1) and economic growth (Y2) in Indonesia throughout 1988-2019. This study uses multiple linear regression analysis using path analysis to determine the direct or indirect effect. The results showed that simultaneously, all dependent variables had a significant effect on the exchange rate (Y1) and economic growth (Y2). While partially, Foreign Debt (X1) and Net Exports (X2) have a positive and significant effect on the Exchange Rate (Y2). Foreign Debt (X1) has a positive and significant effect on Economic Growth (Y2), Net Exports (X2) have a positive and no significant effect on Economic Growth (Y2), and the Exchange Rate (Y1) has a significant and negative effect on Economic Growth (Y2). Based on path analysis, Foreign Debt (X1) and Net Exports (X2) show a stronger direct effect on Economic Growth (Y2), compared to the indirect effect through the exchange rate mediating variable (Y1).