The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Foreign Direct Investment in Ghana

Abstract

Increasingly, Foreign Direct Investment is assuming a prominent role in the development and growth strategies of developing and emerging countries. Using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, this study demonstrates theoretically that nominal interest rate volatility can simultaneously drive exchange rate volatility and impact on Foreign Direct Investment. It then provides an empirical illustration of the bias this endogeneity can cause when regressing measures of exchange rate volatility on foreign direct investment. It is a detailed study that looks at the long – run and short – run movement of exchange rate volatility, interest rate volatility and foreign direct investment by the use of the Vector Error Correction Model. The study also establishes that a stable exchange rate and interest rate improve Foreign Direct Investment inflow into the country. The study however explains that, the effect of interest on Foreign Direct Investment is indirect. It demonstrates that interest rate volatility directly affects exchange rate and market attractiveness which then affects Foreign Direct Investment in the long run. The paper therefore concludes that government should implement policies that will stabilize both the exchange rate and the interest. The study therefore suggests that policies that will reduce importation should be implemented whiles exportation policies should be enhanced and also government external borrowing should be reduced.