The effect of exchange rate fluctuations on multinationals’ returns

Abstract

This paper examines if the type of exchange rate used or size of the movement in the exchange rate matters in estimating exchange-rate exposure of U.S. manufacturing firms. We find that switching from a broad trade-weighted exchange rate to a 2-digit SIC industry exchange rate increases slightly the number of significantly exposed firms. We also find that firms’ stock returns may be affected differently in periods of crisis and non-crisis; some firms have significant exposure only in crisis periods while others have significant exposure only during normal fluctuations in exchange rates.