The effect of electric vehicles and heat pumps on the market potential of PV + battery systems

Abstract

Despite the many uncertainties about their profitability, it is apparent in many countries that a market for stationary batteries is developing. In this study, the market potential of PV + battery systems is modelled up to 2040. The focus is on the effect of electric vehicles and heat pumps on the market potential of stationary batteries. The model uses 415 individual household consumption, heat pump and vehicle charging profiles to address differences in consumption behaviour. It was found that the increasing electricity consumption with the installation of heat pumps and electric vehicles generally increases the household's profit from a self-consumption system. Further, the diffusion of electric vehicles can increase the market for stationary batteries by enabling consumers to charge their electric vehicles with self-produced PV power in the evening hours. Particularly so, if the heating loads can be scheduled for hours with PV production. Although the diffusion of electric vehicles and heat pumps significantly affects the market for stationary batteries, the share of households with these technologies remains relatively low in the short to medium term. Moreover, the market potential of PV + battery systems for the purpose of self-consumption stands and falls with electricity and equipment prices.