The effect of earthquakes on the housing market and the quality of life in the province of Groningen, the Netherlands

Peter Boelhouwer,Harry Van Der Heijden

doi:10.1007/s10901-018-9600-y

Peter Boelhouwer, Harry Van Der Heijden

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10901-018-9600-y

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Abstract

The Netherlands is not known for the occurrence of earthquakes. This is, however, a hot topic in the province of Groningen. Because of gas extraction, this area suffered from more than 1000 earthquakes. Most of them are not very intensive, but also bigger earthquakes of between 2 and 3 on the scale of Richter have been measured. In the last few years, thousands of houses are damaged, house prices have dropped, and the liveability is at stake. This paper pays attention to the effects of these earthquakes on the functioning of the housing market and the quality of life in the region. An extensive survey was conducted, focus groups were organized, housing market statistics were analyzed, and several econometric models were evaluated to give an answer to the question in which way the earthquakes influence the local housing market and the liveability.

Highlights

Since 1963, natural gas has been extracted in the Dutch Province of Groningen
The housing market in Groningen is clearly influenced by the shrinking population in parts of the province, but both inside and outside the shrinking areas the housing market in risk municipalities appears to be lagging behind the recovery of the housing market in nonrisk municipalities
The greater the earthquake intensity is, the greater the impact of the earthquakes is on the housing market

Summary

Introduction

Since 1963, natural gas has been extracted in the Dutch Province of Groningen. This province is located in the north of the Netherlands and is adjacent to Germany (Fig. 1). A general overview of the main results from all the underlying studies is presented according to the three aspects mentioned above: living experience and quality of life, residential mobility, housing market and house price developments (see Boelhouwer et al 2016). These results are the basis for the policy recommendations in the last section. The risk area for earthquakes is broken down by the share of dwellings with earthquake damage (damage intensity) and by demographic developments

Damage intensity

Population growth

Preferences to move

Housing market developments

Findings

Conclusions and policy recommendations