The effect of Crisis on Charismatic Rhetoric and Presidential Ratings: The case of François Holland

Abstract

In times of crisis, leaders are perceived as more effective and charismatic. Using signaling theory, we explore the impact of crisis on charismatic rhetoric and presidential support. In France, between January 2015 and July 2016, three terrorist attacks targeted a satiric journal (i.e., “Charlie Hebdo”) as well as ordinary citizens (i.e., “Paris” and “Nice” attacks). We exploited data from this “natural experiment” setting to investigate former French President Hollande’s charismatic rhetoric and approval ratings. We analyzed 150 major speeches for markers of charismatic leadership (Antonakis, 2017a). Using a regression discontinuity design, where we identify the causal effect of the attack on his speeches (just before and after the attacks) our results indicate that the occurrence of a crisis (i.e., in the cases of Nice and Paris) significantly increased President Hollande’s use of charismatic leadership tactics and for all cases, his approval ratings. Our findings add to empirical evidence showing that a crisis state offers more opportunities to leaders to signal charisma as well as more visibility, attention and credit, resulting in higher ratings. We offer explanations and discuss the implications of these findings.