The effect of combat exposure on veteran homelessness

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of combat exposure on homelessness in surviving deployed veterans. We assess combat exposure in 50,522 Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) participants by combining self-reports of witnessing death through the 2011–2013 survey cycle with military deployment records since September 2001. We use participants’ 2014–2016 MCS survey cycle reports to assess subsequent homelessness. We accommodate uncertainty surrounding limited data with an information theoretic, semi-parametric Generalized Maximum Entropy model. We estimate, on average, a single combat exposure increases the probability of homelessness by about 0.40 percentage points (27% relative to the mean probability) and multiple combat exposures increase the probability of homelessness by about 0.57 percentage points (38% relative to the mean probability). Our model also sheds light on pre-deployment characteristics associated with combat exposure resilience; estimates indicate veterans with poorer pre-deployment mental or physical health and veterans under the age of 30 years are less resilient to the effects of combat exposure on homelessness. Cost calculations with model estimates suggest combat exposure contributed to 4600 veterans experiencing homelessness and $54 million in related public spending.