Abstract
Palythoa caribaeorum is a zoanthid often dominant in shallow rocky environments along the west coast of the Atlantic Ocean, from the tropics to the subtropics. This species has high environmental tolerance and is a good space competitor in reef environments. Considering current and future scenarios in the global climate regime, this study aimed to model and analyze the distribution of P. caribaeorum, generating maps of potential distribution for the present and the year 2100. The distribution was modeled using maximum entropy (Maxent) based on 327 occurrence sites retrieved from the literature. Calcite concentration, maximum chlorophyll-a concentration, salinity, pH, and temperature range yielded a model with the smallest Akaike information criterion (2649.8), and were used in the present and future distribution model. Data from the HadGEM2-ES climate model were used to generate the projections for the year 2100. The present distribution of P. caribaeorum shows that parts of the Brazilian coast, Caribbean Sea, and Florida are suitable regions for the species, as they are characterized by high salinity and pH and small temperature variation. An expansion of the species’ distribution was forecast northward under mild climate scenarios, while a decrease of suitable areas was forecast in the south. In the climate scenario with the most intense changes, P. caribaeorum would lose one-half of its suitable habitats, including the northernmost and southernmost areas of its distribution. The Caribbean Sea and northeastern Brazil, as well as other places under the influence of coastal upwellings, may serve as potential havens for this species.
Highlights
Palythoa caribaeorum (Duchassaing & Michelotti, 1860) is a sessile colonial anthozoan common along the west coast of the Atlantic Ocean (Kemp et al, 2006)
This study aimed to investigate and model the distribution of P. caribaeorum along the western coast of the Atlantic Ocean, generating potential distribution maps for the present and the year 2100 based on forecast climate models
The North Brazil Current flows toward the northwest, passing by the Caribbean Sea, Yucatan Channel, and Gulf of Mexico before merging with the Antilles Current in the Florida Strait to form the Gulf Stream, which flows toward Europe
Summary
Palythoa caribaeorum (Duchassaing & Michelotti, 1860) is a sessile colonial anthozoan common along the west coast of the Atlantic Ocean (Kemp et al, 2006). This species can be found from Florida in the US (Kemp et al, 2006) to Arvoredo Island in Brazil (Bouzon, Brandini & Rocha, 2012), as well as around many oceanic islands in the Atlantic, such. Its distribution is not limited to the western side of the Atlantic Ocean, with records in the Cape Verde islands (Reimer, Hirose & Wirtz, 2010) This broad geographic distribution is possible because P. caribaeorum has a great tolerance to a wide range of environmental conditions (Sebens, 1982). Studies on P. caribaeorum larvae are lacking, it is expected that its biology would be similar to its sister species, Palythoa turbeculosa (Esper 1791), which has symbiotic larvae with planktonic habits and a larval stage up to 170 days long (Polak et al, 2011; Ryland, 1997)
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