The Effect of Climate Change on Spring Maize (Zea mays L.) Suitability across China

Yuhe Ji,Guangsheng Zhou,Qijin He,Lixia Wang

doi:10.3390/su10103804

Abstract

Spring maize (Zea mays L.) is a thermophilic C4 crop which is sensitive to climate change. This paper provides a detailed assessment of the effect of climate change on the crop from a new perspective, by predicting the probability of the potential distribution of spring maize across China. The affected area of spring maize suitability was identified, and then the affected area was subdivided into the improved area and the deteriorated area. Our results confirmed that there was a detrimental consequence for spring maize suitability under observed climate change from 1961–1990 to 1981–2010. However, our results revealed that warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2 °C were helpful for the suitable area expansion of spring maize. The affected area was smaller under warming scenarios than under historical climate change, revealing that temperature rise alone was not enough to trigger a “tipping point” (a threshold value after which abrupt shifts occur) for spring maize, even if warming is 2 °C above the level of 1961–1990. Our results not only benefit China in the design of mitigation and adaptation strategies, but also provide a theoretical judgement that the impact of global warming on the crop ecosystem is not serious if other climate factors remain unchanged.

Highlights

Maize (Zea mays L.) is grown over a wider range of altitudes and latitudes than any other food crop [1]
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Our results provided evidence that the affected area was smaller under these warming scenarios than that seen under historical climate change; the degradation area was the same as the improved area under warming scenarios of 1.5 ◦C and the degradation area was a little larger than the improved area under warming scenarios of 2 ◦C

Summary

Introduction

Maize (Zea mays L.) is grown over a wider range of altitudes and latitudes than any other food crop [1]. Spring maize is usually sown in spring and harvested in autumn across China. Previous studies have reported that historical climate change benefited spring maize growth in high latitudes where thermal resource is limited and resulted in the northward expansion of spring maize [5,6,7]. Some opposite views argue that climate change resulted in a negative impact on spring maize by analyzing extreme disasters from climate factors [8,9,10]. It is probable that the impact of climate change is not consistent in all regions. It is not well known where climate change is favorable and where climate change is harmful for spring maize growth

Objectives

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion