The effect of climate change on energy generated at hydroelectric power plants: A case of Sakarya river basin in Turkey

Abstract

In this study, the effect of climate change on energy data produced in HEPPs in Sakarya River basin of Turkey was investigated. Data were analysis by using classical and modern analysis methods. Before applying these methods, serial correlation coefficients of the data were calculated and it was decided whether trend methods would be applied or not. As a result of the study, while a decreasing trend was observed in Mann-Kendall (50 % of data) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) (90 % of data) methods in energy and streamflow data, unstable trends were observed in Three-Dimensional Innovative Trend Analysis (3D-ITA) method (70 % of data). However, a stable decreasing trend was observed in the middle region in energy and streamflow data of Pamukova HEPP. No trend was generally observed in all methods in precipitation data of Sakarya province. Stable trends were observed in the 3D-ITA method (In 67 % of the region). A generally increasing trend was observed in all methods in temperature data of Sakarya province. Stable trends were observed in the 3D-ITA method (In 67 % of the region). The beginning of the trend in Mann-Kendall Rank Correlation method in both energy-streamflow data and precipitation-temperature data showed the second half of 2016.