Abstract
This study examined climate change impacts (CCI) on productivity of pig production systems, their resource use, environmental impacts and the relevance of potential adaptation options. The impact of increasing temperature and temperature-humidity index (THI) on performance of pigs in confined housing systems was analysed by a meta-analysis. Using climate data for an Austrian site for the period 1981 to 2010, different scenarios (cold year, warm year, hot year, worst case scenario) were modelled and compared. Although significant differences between thermoneutral and heat stress conditions were detected for the analysed traits of growing and finishing pigs, overall performance, resource use (cumulative energy demand) and environmental impacts (global warming, acidification and eutrophication potential) per kg of live mass for finished pigs and reared piglets did not significantly differ between most scenarios. Elements of pig production systems resilient to CCI, which were not considered under performance and environmental impacts (LCA), were addressed in a system analysis that was based on literature and expert knowledge. The most important detected system elements are plants and animals with an appropriate genetic potential, securing the access to inexpensive feed, including land for feed production, securing water supply and the implementation of health plans and measures against diseases associated with CCI.
Highlights
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the major driver of climate change [1]
Combining all literature data collected (Table S2), results for the thermoneutral zone (TNZ) and the upper critical temperatures were derived, e.g., 30 ◦C for weaned piglets, 24 ◦C for finishing pigs and 20–22 ◦C for sows (Table S8). These upper limits of the TNZ, heat stress situations occur with significant effects on production traits
No significant heat stress effects were detected on mortality rates of growing and finishing pigs and on fertility of sows
Summary
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the major driver of climate change [1]. Food supply accounts for 19% to 29% of global GHG emissions, the vast majority of it coming from the agricultural sector [2]. Climate change threatens global food security and affects livestock production, for instance, through effects on feed production, through livestock diseases or heat stress [4]. Until 2100, global temperatures are expected to increase by about 1.5 ◦C (0.75–2.2 ◦C) for a low-emission scenario (emission mitigation) and up to above 4.5 ◦C (3.4–5.8 ◦C) for a high-emission scenario [1]. This will result in more frequent heat stress situations, especially during the summer months
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