Abstract
Abstract. Belgium is one of the areas within Europe experiencing the highest levels of air pollution. A high-resolution (3 km) modelling experiment is employed to provide guidance to policymakers about expected air quality changes in the near future (2026–2035). The regional air quality model AURORA (Air quality modelling in Urban Regions using an Optimal Resolution Approach), driven by output from a regional climate model, is used to simulate several 10-year time slices to investigate the impact of climatic changes and different emission scenarios on near-surface O3 concentrations, one of the key indices for air quality. Evaluation of the model against measurements from 34 observation stations shows that the AURORA model is capable of reproducing 10-year mean concentrations, daily cycles and spatial patterns. The results for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 emission scenario indicate that the mean surface O3 concentrations are expected to increase significantly in the near future due to less O3 titration by reduced NOx emissions. Applying an alternative emission scenario for Europe is found to have only a minor impact on the overall concentrations, which are dominated by the background changes. Climate change alone has a much smaller effect on the near-surface O3 concentrations over Belgium than the projected emission changes. The very high horizontal resolution that is used in this study results in much improved spatial correlations and simulated peak concentrations compared to a standard 25 km simulation. An analysis of the number of peak episodes during summer revealed that the emission reductions in RCP4.5 result in a 25% decrease of these peak episodes.
Highlights
Belgium ranks among the areas in Europe with the highest levels of air pollution, failing to meet the targets of the EU Air Quality Directives (EEA, 2012)
The regional air quality model AURORA (Air quality modelling in Urban Regions using an Optimal Resolution Approach), driven by output from a regional climate model, is used to simulate several 10-year time slices to investigate the impact of climatic changes and different emission scenarios on near-surface O3 concentrations, one of the key indices for air quality
The effect of climate change and two different emission scenarios on near-future (2026–2035) surface O3 concentrations over Belgium was investigated with the regional air quality model AURORA at an unprecedented horizontal resolution of 3 km
Summary
Belgium ranks among the areas in Europe with the highest levels of air pollution, failing to meet the targets of the EU Air Quality Directives (EEA, 2012). The simulated periods in this study are limited to 10 years since we apply a very high horizontal resolution of 3 km, which is needed to capture the high spatial variability of air pollution patterns in Belgium (Lauwaet et al, 2013). Jacob and Winner (2009) reviewed multiple studies on global climate and air quality models and reported that summertime surface O3 concentrations are expected to increase in polluted regions over the coming decades. Juda-Rezler et al (2012) focussed solely on climate change impacts by keeping the anthropogenic emissions constant at year 2000 levels They found that, under IPCC scenario A1B, the near-surface O3 concentrations would increase up to 10 % over Europe by the end of the 21st century due to increased summer temperatures and decreased summer precipitation.
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