Abstract
In some areas of climate impact analysis, the possible impact of a changing mean climate has been dismissed by some writers either because of a belief that society can adapt to a slowly changing mean and/or because expected rates of future changes lie within or not far outside those experienced in the past. The two standard counter arguments to this optimistic view are: (1) the future will lead to much longer periods of protracted change in one direction, with final conditions well into the no-analogue region; and/or (2) the main impacts will accrue through changes in the frequency of extremes. In the literature on greenhouse effect, lip service is often paid to the effect of changes in the frequency of extremes. But just how will a slowly changing mean affect the frequency of extremes? Quantitative discussions of this subject are rare,
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