The effect of California’s top-two primary system on voter turnout in US House Elections

Abstract

This paper evaluates one potential impact of California’s Proposition 14, which created a top-two primary system for all non-Presidential election races within the state. Our analysis is twofold, with the concern of each analysis placed on voter roll off when the result of the top-two primary placed a non-traditional pairing of candidates on the ballot.We focus on U.S. House races using data at the congressional district level to evaluate the impact of a non-traditional general election that omits one of the major parties from the ballot. Using major party registration of the political party omitted from the general election ballot, we find suggestive evidence that voter roll-off increases with these non-traditional contests. These elections do not effect voter turnout as a whole, but can increase voter roll-off by upwards of 7%.