The Effect of an Extreme Right Party on Ethnic Minority Feelings Towards Mainstream Parties; Context-Dependent Evaluations and Strategic Considerations

Abstract

The extreme right British National Party tends to perform better in areas with higher proportions of ethnic minority residents. Research so far has focused on the likelihood of white British individuals voting or supporting the party. This paper explores how the far right might affect ethnic minority voting behaviour and perceptions of parties. The BNP is an anti-immigrant party with racist and xenophobia policies. They are therefore a particularly frightening party to ethnic minority voters. I argue that this is an example of context-dependent choice, when the entire choice set has an effect on the utility of a given alternative to the decision-maker. I demonstrate this in two ways. First, a BNP candidate, especially one who attracts more votes in the General Election, is associated with less ethnic minority abstention, to the benefit of the Labour party. Secondly, Conservative and Liberal Democrat party and leader evaluations are more positive among ethnic minorities in seats where the BNP stood and/or did well in 2010.