The effect of a reduction in heroin supply on fatal and non‐fatal drug overdoses in New South Wales, Australia

Abstract

To examine the impact of a sudden and dramatic decrease in heroin availability, concomitant with increases in price and decreases in purity, on fatal and non-fatal drug overdoses in New South Wales, Australia. Time-series analysis was conducted where possible on data on overdoses collected from NSW hospital emergency departments, the NSW Ambulance Service, and all suspected drug-related deaths referred to the NSW Coroner's court. The number of suspected drug-related deaths where heroin and other drugs were mentioned; ambulance calls to suspected opioid overdoses; and emergency department admissions for overdoses on heroin and other drugs. Both fatal and non-fatal heroin overdoses decreased significantly after heroin supply reduced; the reductions were greater among younger age groups than older age groups. There were no clear increases in non-fatal overdoses with cocaine, methamphetamines or benzodiazepines recorded at hospital emergency departments after the reduction in heroin supply. Data on drug-related deaths suggested that heroin use was the predominant driver of drug-related deaths in NSW, and that when heroin supply was reduced overdose deaths were more likely to involve a wider combination of drugs. A reduction in heroin supply reduced heroin-related deaths, and did not result in a concomitant increase, to the same degree, in deaths relating to other drugs. Younger people were more affected by the reduction in supply.