Abstract
There are background issues has generated this study, which one from the global crude oil price get reduced to around 70% in the second semester of 2014. Several observations were associated with an imbalance between the pattern of supply and demand for crude oil. This study is purposed at examining the effect of the variable crude oil production from the Gulf Country and the USA, furthermore is the variable consumption of crude oil on changes in the price of WTI crude oil (West Texas Intermediate). The secondary data has obtained by U.S. agencies. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The results processed by multiple linear regression methods in the period of observation Q3 2001 - Q4 2018, the results describe that the variables of crude oil production from Saudi countries (Persian Gulf Country) give a significant negative result (β = -4.993; significant level 0.028), and for USA Oil production variable gives a significant positive result (β = 0.177; significant level 0,000) whereas OECD country consumption shows a positive result that is not significant for changes in crude oil prices (β = 1,926; significant level 0.058).
Highlights
In the last 5 years, there was a phenomenon of a significant decline in world oil prices compared to previous years
The scope of this study discusses about the relationship of changes in average value from the current period of real West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices with supply and demand factors, consist of the the quarterly growth of volume Saudi Arabia's crude oil production which belongs to the Persian Gulf country group (Persian Gulf Country Oil Production), the production of American Oil / WTI (USA Oil Production) as well as demand factors which represented by oil consumption variables from OECD countries with a research period on third quarter years of 2001 to the fourth quarter at years of 2018
Based on the analysis and discussion in the previous chapter, it can be concluded that the results of this study are as follows: 1. Any changes that occur to the independent variables that Persian Gulf Country Production (Prod.GC), USA Crude Oil Production
Summary
In the last 5 years, there was a phenomenon of a significant decline in world oil prices compared to previous years. This effect is directly felt by industries that conducting business in the oil and gas sector. Oil as a commodity of business results for sale will be directly related to sales and recorded as company’s profit, if commodity of prices becoming reduced by on half range, so there are would makes the company's profits declined. According information related to the quantity of crude oil traded [5], the relationship of the phenomenon of falling oil prices at the end of the first semester of 2014 is considered to be an impact of the revolution in shale oil production in the United States
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