The Economies of East Asia

Abstract

In 2018, East Asia accounted for accounted for 31% of gross world product (GWP). A global forecasting model developed by Hooke and updated by Hooke, Alati, and Kaur for the first three chapters of this book suggests that the region's share will remain at about this level until 2050, with the effects of global labour productivity convergence more than offsetting East Asia's relatively slow work force growth. Thereafter, the share will decline to 18% by 2100 due mainly to more rapid productivity and work force growth in West Asia and Africa. China is expected to retain its position as the world's largest economy until about the middle of this century, at which time its GDP will be more than 2.5 times that of the United States. An important driver of growth in East Asia during the coming decades will be Indonesia, whose share of GWP is forecast to rise from 2.6% in 2018 to 3.8% by 2050.