The economics of art: price determinants and returns on investment in Indian paintings

Abstract

PurposeThe valuation of artworks is challenging since their value encompasses economic, social and cultural values. This study examines two specific questions about the economics of Indian art market: first, the determinants of the price of paintings by Indian artists and second, the risk and return characteristics of investment in Indian paintings. The authors also analyze the role of local context for both questions.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses 8,865 paintings that are auctioned between January, 2000 and June, 2018. A generalized additive model (GAM) is employed to identify the determinants of auction prices and estimate art market price index.FindingsThe results indicate that the price of paintings in the Indian market is impacted by both global and local factors. Consistent with the previous research, this study finds that provenance, literature, living status of an artist, artist reputation, auction house, location and gender determine prices. However, the unique behavior of artwork medium and art movement affiliation in the Indian art market signifies the importance of local context in the valuation of artworks. An analysis of the second aspect of the study, i.e. risk and return characteristics of art investment, suggests that though overall art market returns are not lucrative, there are sub-sections in the market that outperform stocks and other assets. Further, the Indian art market shows a weak or negative correlation with other assets, thus making it a good candidate for a diversified portfolio. One of the important findings of this study is that artworks created by artists associated with the Bombay Progressive Artists' Group (PAG) command a significant price premium over all other artworks. Moreover, the average return on investment in paintings by artists affiliated to the Bombay PAG is not only significantly better than other art movements but also higher than all other art assets.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the growing literature on the economics of art market by providing a comprehensive analysis of the economics of Indian paintings. This research highlights the importance of local factors in price determination and on the risk and return characteristics of art investment. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, it is the most comprehensive study of the economics of Indian painting market and the first study to identify the relationship between Indian art movements and prices of paintings and returns on investment in paintings.