Abstract

SUMMARYStarting with the aggregate demand model of economics, a model of demand for intercity air travel is developed which contains the gravity model as a less general submodel. The more general model is referred to as the alternative opportunities model since it takes account of alternative destinations open to travelers, not just origin and destination as does the gravity model. The demand model approach has the virtue of providing a theoretical basis for understanding and analyzing the gravity model.The gains from treating alternative locations and demand motivation variables are a substantial increase in explanatory power over that yielded by the gravity model, the identification of statistically significant determinants of air travel, and better measurement of the coefficients of population and distance by taking account of these other variables and somewhat better forecasts.A shortcoming of procedures used here is aggregation of air trips with different purposes and thus lack of clear specification of the size of effects of different variables on different types of travel. Overcoming this difficulty must await origin‐destination data listed by trip purpose.

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