The Economic Vote in Presidential Systems

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of the economy on Latin American presidential elections between 1990 and 2010. My results demonstrate that the incumbent’s ideology and the political context condition this impact, and that, therefore, the degree of accountability for the economy varies between countries and presidential administrations. The economy has only affected the electoral performance of centrist incumbents, suggesting that voters put more emphasis on non-economic issues when they evaluate the administration of left- and right-wing presidents. Secondly, the economy has only affected the electoral performance of incumbents in contexts of single-party majority governments. This indicates that Latin American voters do not hold presidents accountable for the economy when his or her party depends on the cooperation of allies or the opposition to govern.