The economic modeling development. An econometric aspect

Abstract

The experience of development of applied predominantly macroeconomic modeling is considered. A comparison is made of the so-called non-structural approach, which is not strictly substantiated by economic theory, with the structural approach, where such a justification is the basis. It is shown that the achievements of structural and non-structural modeling have largely contributed to the blurring of the clear line between these two approaches. An analysis of researches also allows us to conclude that the rapid development of non-structural modeling led to the emergence of effective modeling methods that demonstrate good predictive properties, often surpassing the quality of structural models. In addition, it is shown that the difficulties arising at a certain stage in the development of the non-structural approach were often eliminated within the framework of the same approach, but with the advent of new methods. The presence of a close connection between the structural and non-structural approaches and the need for a hybrid approach to modeling real economic systems and processes, – that is, an approach in which some behavioral mechanisms and their corresponding structural parameters are explicitly introduced into the model, while the remaining elements are identified on the basis of methods of non-structural approach.