Abstract
The use of automatic information systems for risk analysis from other countries in Ukraine is extremely difficult due to the lack of databases on factors affecting risk, not only at the regional but also at the state level. Therefore, it became necessary to create an economic-mathematical model for information processing, including incomplete data, on factors affecting risks for use in the agricultural sector of Ukraine. Such a model was formalized, created and tested.The developed economic-mathematical model of the risk analysis system presupposes the necessity of preliminary statement of the task by an expert in the field of agriculture and further automatic work of the software complex adapted to the conditions of use by specialists in economic and mathematical modeling.Because of there are mostly no databases in Ukraine on factors affecting risks, it is needful to evaluate and use incomplete data or data for limited time intervals.One of the components of the algorithm is the method of simulation. The automatic information system for risk analysis generates so-called pseudo-random sequences and gradually verifies the reliability of their description of each of the risks named by the expert, specific to this particular task for the farms. Such a method has already been tested on tasks whose solution was faced with a lack of statistical information, and the impossibility of using analytical methods.Reducing the execution time of the task is facilitated by the formation of a library of working arrays, which accumulates during the operation of an automatic risk analysis system.Reducing the time of the task is facilitated by the formation of library tool working arrays, which accumulates during the operation of the automatic risk analysis system.To simplify the processing of incoming information and work out calculations, it is suggested to use a parametric model.This method was borrowed from the experience of using gert-networks.To test the effectiveness of the developed algorithm, a risk calculation has been made for farms that grow cereals, legumes and sunflowers. The results of the calculation showed reliable values of risk factors.It was determined which of the risks is more significant for the producers of these agricultural products.
Highlights
In today's changing economy of Ukraine, it is difficult to predict the effect of economic decisions in the agricultural sector due to the uncertainty of risks caused by incomplete information
The creation of automatic risk analysis systems in the agricultural sector is fraught with the lack of necessary knowledge in economics and mathematics from direct users professionals and practitioners in this field
Knowledge and experience in agriculture is lacking in specialists in mathematics and economics - those who develop automated information systems for risk analysis
Summary
In today's changing economy of Ukraine, it is difficult to predict the effect of economic decisions in the agricultural sector due to the uncertainty of risks caused by incomplete information. The use of automated information systems for risk analysis in the agricultural sector of Ukraine is faced with the problem of the lack of bases of statistical data on the factors of influence for most of the risks. For the algorithm of risk analysis elements of the method of random stochastic GERTnetworks, detailed in the works [14,15,16] were used Their application makes it possible to use incomplete in-depth information on received influence factors when passing through branches of a network GERT-model [15, 16]. Results of calculating the risks of reducing the level of yield of sunflower, prices and volumes of its sale for farms of Ukraine
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