Abstract
There is a substantial concern for the economic impacts of global warming. This study identifies the effects of seasonal temperatures on total economic output in the cities of China, and then projects the changes in local economic performance under future climate and development scenarios. The results suggest that there are significant negative effects of warm seasonal temperature but positive effects of cold seasonal temperature on economic growth. These different effects increase as more lags of temperature are included. By 2090, the cities may have the average reduction of 44% in GDP per capita under RCP8.5, but some of them in Northeast China are predicted to get positive impacts under RCP2.6. The difference in the estimated aggregate impacts under the two RCPs could be as much as 24%. The poor cities are likely to have higher economic damages, which amplifies the economic inequality. Finally, the ranges of economic impacts projected by different climate models are presented.
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