The economic impact on residential fees associated with the expansion of grid-connected solar photovoltaic generators in Brazil

Abstract

Abstract The main objective of this study is analyze the economic impact on residential fees under transition to distributed photovoltaic generation systems connected to the distribution networks in Brazil. We conducted several analyses, including assessing the Brazilian context through a cash flow competitiveness analysis, to characterize the effects that tariffs have on energy transitions in Brazil. In this context, our research estimates: i) the increase in fees for non-migrating consumers; ii) the revenue eviction of the distribution companies; and iii) the decrease in collection of government taxes under a net metering strategy adopted to encourage energy transition in Brazil. By analyzing the impacts on tariff scenario estimates, the results show that the period between 2023 and 2030 is crucial from a Brazilian energy policy perspective. In addition, we concluded that the use of the net metering model, currently applied in Brazil, could cause residential fee increases of 22–47% by 2035.