Abstract
This paper estimates the economic impact of climate change on road infrastructure using the stressor-response methodology. Our analysis indicates that it could cumulatively (2020–2100) cost Ghana $473 million to maintain and repair damages caused to existing roads as a result of climate change (no adapt scenario). However, if the country adapts the design and construction of new road infrastructure, expected to occur over the asset’s lifespan (adapt scenario), the total cumulative cost could increase to $678.47 million due to the initial costs of adaptation. This investment provides lower costs on a decadal basis later in the infrastructure lifespan. This creates the planning question of whether lower decadal costs in the future are a priority or if minimizing initial costs is a priority. The paper addresses this question through decadal and average annual costs up to the year 2100 for the ten regions, using the potential impacts of 54 distinct potential climate scenarios.
Highlights
Ghana has been experiencing long periods of drought and erratic rainfall, in the arid north and along the coast
We first examine the variance in terms of the distribution of the potential impacts based on the climate scenarios and later the variance in both the “adapt” and “no adapt” policies
Results of the variance in both the “adapt” and “no adapt” policies as shown in Table 3 indicates that it may cost Ghana cumulatively about $473 million US dollars in maintaining and repairing damages caused to existing roads directly as a result of climate change from the year 2020 through 2100 based on median climate scenarios
Summary
Ghana has been experiencing long periods of drought and erratic rainfall, in the arid north (savannah) and along the coast. Erratic rainfall has been observed during the minor crop season (September and November) in the forest-savannah transition zone. The work of Environmental Protection Agency [2] indicates that over the thirty year period covering 1961–1990, annual total rainfall declined by 20%, stream flow or runoff in all the river basin systems declined by 30%, while temperature increased by 1 °C. Several climate change scenarios have been developed for Ghana, all indicating that temperature will increase while the changes in rainfall are uncertain and span a wide range. Scenarios reported by Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) et al [3], using data from 1961 to 2000, indicated that there will be a progressive rise in both maximum and minimum temperatures, for all regions of Ghana, and a decreasing trend in rainfall patterns. Average annual rainfall is estimated to decline by 1.1% in 2020 and 20.5% in 2080 compared to the
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