Abstract
This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. We use cross-sectional data on climate, hydrological, soil and household level data for a sample of 816 households. We estimate a seasonal Ricardian model to assess the impact of climate on net crop revenue per acre. The results show that climate affects crop productivity. There is a non-linear relationship between temperature and revenue on one hand and between precipitation and revenue on the other. Estimated marginal impacts suggest that global warming is harmful for crop productivity. Predictions from global circulation models confirm that global warming will have a substantial impact on net crop revenue in Kenya. The results also show that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. Findings call for monitoring of climate change and dissemination of information to farmers to encourage adaptations to climate change. Improved management and conservation of available water resources, water harvesting and recycling of wastewater could generate water for irrigation purposes especially in the arid and semi-arid areas.
Highlights
Agriculture continues to be the leading sector in the Kenyan economy in terms of its contribution to real GDP
In addition to the climate variables, we modeled the impact of hydrological, soil and household specific factors
The results indicate that andosols have a positive and significant impact on net crop revenue, which conforms to a priori expectations because andosols are quite fertile and suited for crop production
Summary
Agriculture continues to be the leading sector in the Kenyan economy in terms of its contribution to real GDP. It contributed 36.6% of GDP in the period 1964–74, 33.2% in 1974–79, 29.8% in 1980–89, 26.5% in 1990–95 and 24.5% in 1996–2000. Between 1993 and 1998, the contribution of agriculture to GDP stagnated at 25% while that of manufacturing declined from 13.8% to 13.3%. In spite of the decline in the agricultural sector’s contribution to GDP, it remains one of the most important sectors driving economic growth. Agriculture is responsible for providing food security for both the rural and urban populations. Rapidly expanding population, rapid urbanization and the shortage of high potential arable land cause occasional imbalances between the national demand for food and its supply
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
