Abstract

ABSTRACT Although science has grown faster than its resources for over 300 years, this situation is unstable. Eventually, the growth of science must slow to match that of its base, and researchers will have to compete harder. Verbal models of ecological competition provide scenarios of the likely conditions in the competitive science of the future. Individual researchers can expect to be more stressed and less productive. The scientific population will be more stable, reducing the youthfulness and immediacy of contemporary science, allowing the dominant individuals who succeed in fierce competition greater opportunity to impose theirviews. Science as a whole should expect more interdisciplinary infighting for available funds, and the largest subdisciplines will likely win even larger shares of the available pie. In a recent reallocation in Canada, aquatic sciences and related areas lost funds to supposedly more industrially and economically relevant fields, even though Canadian aquatic scientists outperfo...

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