The ecological traits of birds in the context of future changes of their ranges under the impact of global climate change

Abstract

Over the next 70 years, the average annual temperature in Europe is projected to increase by 4.1 °C. In Zhytomyr Oblast, this figure is likely to increase by 4.4 °C. The amount of precipitation in Europe is expected to increase by an average of 60.3 mm per year, with Zhytomyr Oblast experiencing an 87.2 mm per year increase in precipitation compared to the current state. As a consequence of the global climate change, the habitat-preference index will decline for 159 species (60.1%), remain virtually unchanged for 20 species (7.6%), and improve for 83 species (31.7%). The primary factors influencing the differentiation of avian ecological niches by climate regimes are thermal gradient, precipitation gradient, and temporal variability of precipitation throughout the year. With regard to the landscape aspect, bird species can be differentiated according to their campophi­lous/dendrophilous characteristics, their water-intensive/rural or urban/rural tendencies. Soil conditions are a determining factor in the landscape aspect of ecological niches. As a consequence of the global climate change, the habitat preference index will increase for species that are more thermophilic and prefer conditions with higher precipitation. According to predictions, over the coming 70 years, the number of campophilous birds will increase as compared to dendrophilous birds as a result of the global warming. Moisture-loving campophiles will be outcompeted by rural species, and rural species will be outcompeted by urban species. In response to the climate change, populations of bird species are shifting their geographical ranges to regions with suitable climatic conditions. The knowledge of the characteristics of ecological niches is the foundation for anticipating alterations in species distributions in response to global climate change in the future. The estimation of niche parameters is contingent upon the model employed to fit the observed data. The beta model is a flexible and versatile tool that enables comparisons to be made between species complexes. The thermal projection of ecological niche was employed to categorise bird species into ecological groups based on the position of the optimum zone and the width of tolerance amplitude. Ecological groups differ in their prospects in the context of global climate change. It can be predicted that the trends of stenotopic megatherms will improve, whereas those of all other bird species will deteriorate. The most pessimistic scenario is expected for stenotopic microtherms. The analysis of the ecological properties of birds in the region identified 10 functional axes, three of which correlate with the sensitivity of bird species to the global climate change. The prediction of impact of landscape factors on species distribution is challenging. However, the structure of the functional axes allows us to identify which ecological niche parameters, determined by landscape conditions, are more sensitive to birds. Functional axes 1 and 6 indicate a positive trend in urban bird life in the context of global climate change. It is anticipated that positive prospects will emerge in connection with the global climate change for birds belonging to the families Anseriformes, Podicipediformes, Gruiformes, Charadriiformes, Gaviiformes, and Pelecaniformes. Conversely, negative prospects are expected for forest birds (Columbiformes, Strigiformes, Piciformes) and birds of forest and open spaces (Falconiformes). The functional axis 1 correlated with bird weight. A positive correlation between bird weight and the predicted change in the habitat-preference index over the next 70 years was identified exclusively for species belonging to Charadriiformes. The positive effect of weight on the probability of habitat improvement within Charadriiformes can be attributed to the fact that rurally occurring species within this order are usually heavier than those in natural ecosystems, and those in urban habitats are heavier than those in rural habitats. Functional Axis 4 identifies the group of urban birds whose habitat conditions are likely to deteriorate in the near future due to global warming. This group includes woodpeckers, which can be considered an indicator of the biodiversity of bird communities that are sensitive to the global climate change.