The ECB monetary policy: Choices and challenges

Abstract

This paper analyses the European central bank (ECB) monetary policy over the period 1999–2006, with a special emphasis on the recent years. The first part of the paper underlines the declared goals, decision variables and procedures, as can be inferred from various speeches of Jean-Claude Trichet, the President of the ECB. These statements are then weighted against the data, mainly through estimates of possible ECB interest rate rules. While in many respects the bank has performed reasonably well, several issues may be raised, mainly because the inflation objective has not been reached during the last period and monetary developments are not in line with economic stability. Policy recommendations follow, built on a renewed monetarist tradition: the reduction of the weight of real activity in the conduct of monetary policy, while further emphasising money via a money growth intermediate target.