The early estimation of the results of treatment for cancer.

Abstract

Methods of obtaining an early estimation of the results of cancer treatment are discussed. At a number of sites the time taken to collect a suitable number of patients is comparable with the maximum survival time of an uncured patient. As a consequence simple actuarial calculations can be used soon after the last case is treated to estimate the final result. At other sites where the survival time of some of the uncured patients is long compared with the period required to collect sufficient cases, some hypothesis is necessary about the frequency with which future deaths from cancer may occur. In a number of examples it is shown that the “Extrapolated Actuarial” method, which assumes that the probability of dying from cancer decreases exponentially with time after treatment, could have been used successfully to predict the final results of treatment provided the collection period plus the minimum follow-up time was at least seven years.