The Dynamics of the Average Annual and Cumulative Radiation Exposure Doses of the Adult Population of the Russian Federation after the Chernobyl Disaster

Abstract

The purpose of the study was to study the patterns of forming average annual and cumulative exposure doses. The subject of the study was the dynamics of the average annual and cumulative doses of the adult population of the Russian Federation after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident. Results and conclusions. We estimated the contribution of external and internal exposure doses accumulated during the first year after the disaster into the total doses accumulated in 1986–2016 in the population living in the areas with different levels of 137Cs activity in surface soil. The contribution of the exposure doses received during the first year after the accident into the total doses accumulated in 1986–2016 by the population of the regions with different levels of 137Cs activity in surface soil was more than 30%. The contribution of the internal exposure dose received during the first year after the accident into the total exposure dose accumulated in 1986–2016 by the population exceeded that of the external dose. We predicted the average annual and cumulative exposure doses of the population until the year 2056: in 2016, the actual average annual exposure dose for the population exceeded 1.0 mSv/year only in 19 settlements of the Bryansk Region while by 2056 the number of such settlements would be null. In 2016, the average cumulative exposure dose of the population exceeded 70 mSv in 55 settlements of the Bryansk Region, the maximum being 299 mSv. According to the forecast for the year 2056, the total number of settlements in the Bryansk Region with the average cumulative exposure dose of the population equal to or greater than 70 mSv would approach 92. All these settlements are situated only in the Bryansk Region. The maximum expected value of the average cumulative exposure dose would be 374 mSv. We estimated the contribution of the population exposure dose accumulated in 1986–2016 into the exposure dose accumulated during 70 years (a lifetime dose). The contribution of the average accumulated effective exposure dose for 1986–2016 into the dose predicted for 1986–2056 ranged 86% to 94%. This means that the major part of the lifetime dose has been already accumulated by the locals