The dynamics of population change in Eastern Serbia from the midlle of the 20th to the beginning of the 21st century

Abstract

Despite considerable natural resources and a favourable geographical location, all indicators of population trends show declining tendencies, which were indicated much earlier than they were recognized as a demographic problem. The aim of the article is to explore the dynamics and intensity of population change in Eastern Serbia, but without analytical approaches to the components of population dynamics. The chosen temporal and spatial coverage of the research is in accordance with the methodological approach, which provides for the application of the comparative-statistical method to as many spatial units as possible, in order to determine the spatial dispersion of the indicators of population growth. The data sources in this research are censuses, and the presented indicators of population growth were derived according to the methodology of demographic research. The obtained results show a weak increase in the population of Eastern Serbia from 1948 to 1961, since then the values of the growth indicators stagnate for a short time and then decrease continuously. In the whole observation period from 1948-2011, the growth index shows a 21% decrease in the population of Eastern Serbia. The average annual growth rates of the population in Eastern Serbia were lower than the average annual growth rates of the total population of Central Serbia in all intermediate census periods until 2011, and this difference is even more pronounced if the City of Nis is excluded from the total population of Eastern Serbia. Although the dynamics of population growth in Eastern Serbia in the period 1948-2011 is characterized by linearity (either in the form of increase or decrease), it is striking that not all parts of the country participate equally. Only 4 municipalities and the City of Nis recorded an increase in population, while in the other 20 municipalities the population decreased. In 10 municipalities depopulation was already recorded in 1953-1961.