The Dynamics of Party Identification Reconsidered

Abstract

This paper uses mixed Markov latent class models and data from multiwave national panel surveys to investigate the sta- bility of individual-level party identification in three Anglo-American democracies - the United States, Britain, and Canada. Analyses reveal that partisan attachments exhibit substantial dynamism at the latent vari- able level in the American, British, and Canadian electorates. Large-scale partisan dynamics are not a recent development; rather, they are present in all of the national panel surveys conducted since the 1950s. In all three countries, a generalized model outperforms rival models including a partisan stability model and a black-white nonatti- tudes model that specifies random partisan dynamics. The superiority of generalized mover-stayer models of individual-level party identification comports well with American and British studies that document nonsta- tionary, long memory in macropartisanship. The theoretical perspective provided by party identification updating models is consistent with the mix of durable and flexible partisans found in the United States and elsewhere.