The dynamics of demographic indices in the Republic of Bashkortostan

Abstract

The article presents results of analysis of demographic indices in the Republic of Bashkortostan. The primary data for analysis was acquired from official public statistics. The dynamics of fertility and mortality indices in 1985-2018 is described. The prognostication of indices dynamics up to 2025 was made. The distribution of mortality indices by gender, age, causes of death, place of residence is proposed for 2012, 2015 and 2018. Four periods with increasing or decreasing of fertility and mortality was allocated. The linear correlation made up to r = -0.492, p<0.01, i.e., with decreasing of birth rate increasing in mortality occurred. The assessment of dynamics of mortality in 2015-2018 established that young age groups (15-29 years old) are characterized by significant increasing of mortality in every subsequent age group as compared with previous age group. Between 2012 and 2018, total mortality decreased from 13.2 ‰ to 12.4 ‰. Males and females aged 40-44 and females aged 45-49 and 50-54 had such negative trend as increasing of mortality as compared with 2012 and 2015. The decreasing of indices of overall mortality occurred only among males. In males, mortality rate exceeded mortality rate in females up to 1.33 times in 2012, up to 1.29 times in 2015 and up to 1.23 times in 2018. The mortality rate of rural population is 1.3 times higher than mortality rate of urban population. While mortality rate of able-bodied population is 1.4 times higher. The increasing of mortality occurred due to malignant neoplasms, while the growth rate was more pronounced among rural population as compared with urban population. The mortality of respiratory diseases is more than 2 times higher in rural areas and of diseases of the digestive system is 1.5 times higher among rural population. The established growth trends in mortality among rural population due to respiratory and digestive diseases and decreasing of mortality of diseases of the circulatory system and significant decreasing of such cases as "elder age" can be explained by probability of defects in encoding of causes of death.