The Dynamics of Change Following Extreme Events: Transition, Scale, and Adaptation in Systems Under Stress

Abstract

Whether and how organizations adapt to risk in changing contexts is a perennial problem in public administration. We explore this problem in a comparative analysis of four hurricanes that struck the Gulf Coast in 2005 and 2008: Hurricanes Katrina and Gustav in Louisiana and Hurricanes Rita and Ike in Texas. We use a framework of complex adaptive systems to assess what changes facilitate this transition in disaster contexts and what conditions inhibit adaptation. Methods include content and network analysis, including the calculation of E/I index scores. Findings suggest that investment in information technology and training in Louisiana following a perceived poor response to Katrina in 2005 led to adaptive performance in Gustav in 2008 in Louisiana, whereas minimal change following a perceived credible response to Rita in 2005 led to slower adaptation in response to Ike in 2008 in Texas.