Abstract
Public opinion climates on immigrants are subject to certain dynamics. This study examines two mechanisms for such dynamics in Western EU member states for the 2002–2018 period. First, the impact of cohort replacement and, second, the impact of periodic threat perceptions, namely, changing macroeconomic conditions and shifts in immigration rates. To date, empirical research on anti-immigrant sentiments rarely combines these two concepts simultaneously to disentangle the interplay of period and cohort effects and determine the factors for long- and short-term attitude changes in societies. Motivated by this gap in the literature, I conduct multiple linear regression analyses of pooled data from all waves of the European Social Survey to show that the process of cohort replacement has led to a substantially more positive opinion climate toward immigrants since the 2000s. However, results indicate that in the future, this positive development is likely to come to a halt since younger cohorts no longer hold significantly more immigrant-friendly attitudes than their immediate predecessors. Furthermore, we observe different period effects to impact cohorts’ attitudes. Fixed-effects panel analyses show that the effect of changing macroeconomic conditions on cohorts’ attitudes is low. Changes in immigration rates, however, lead to significantly more dismissive attitudes when immigrants originate from the Global South as opposed to when they enter from EU countries. These insights suggest that it is less economic or cultural threat perceptions, but ethnic prejudice that plays a key role for natives to oppose immigration. Overall, findings suggest that it is not either cohort or period effects driving large-scale attitude changes, but rather we observe an interplay of both.
Highlights
An increasing number of people are on the move, and Western European countries are among the prime destination countries for immigrants
I explore how Western European birth cohorts differ in their sentiments toward immigrants and what this implies for future opinion climates, when younger birth cohorts replace their predecessors
I approach the first question of how Western European birth cohorts differ in their sentiments toward immigrants and examine the potential impact of cohort replacement
Summary
An increasing number of people are on the move, and Western European countries are among the prime destination countries for immigrants. The results show that both the process of cohort replacement and specific demographic shifts within the migrant population, when originating from the Global South, affect the overall opinion climate toward immigrants in Western EU member states between 2002 and 2018 This granular analysis reveals the power of ethnic prejudice over cultural and economic threat perceptions. To identify the within-cohort change over time, I apply a fixed-effects panel analysis at cohort level.5 This technique facilitates the investigation of the dynamic approach of group threat theory and answers the second research question of this study, concerning the stability of cohorts’ attitudes. I conduct a period sensitivity analysis assessing whether particular periods impact the results
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
