The dynamics and outcomes of AKI progression during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Abstract

Acute kidney injury (AKI) associated with COVID-19 is associated with poor prognosis. This study assessed the hitherto uninvestigated impact of COVID-19 on the progression and clinical outcomes of patients with AKI. Data from 576 patients with AKI admitted between 13/3/20 and 13/5/20 were studied. Increasingly complex analyses, from logistic regressions to competing-risk and multi-state models, have revealed insights into AKI progression dynamics associated with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 acquisition and death. Meta-analyses of case fatality ratios among patients with AKI were also conducted. The overall case-fatality ratio was 0.33 [95% CI (0.20-0.36)]; higher in COVID-19 positive (COVID+) patients 0.52 [95% CI (0.46-0.58)] than in their negative (COVID-) counterparts 0.16 [95% CI (0.12-0.20)]. In AKI Stage-3 patients, that was 0.71 [95% CI (0.64-0.79)] among COVID+ patients with 45% dead within 14 days and 0.35 [95% CI (0.25-0.44)] in the COVID- group and 28% died within 14 days. Among patients diagnosed with AKI Stage-1 within 24 h, the probability of progression to AKI Stage-3 on day 7 post admission was 0.22 [95% CI (0.17-0.27)] among COVID+ patients, and 0.06 [95% CI (0.03, 0.09)] among those who tested negative. The probability of discharge by day 7 was 0.71 [95% CI (0.66, 0.75)] in COVID- patients, and 0.27 [95% CI (0.21, 0.32)] in COVID+ patients. By day 14, in AKI Stage-3 COVID+ patients, that was 0.35 [95% CI (0.25, 0.44)] with little change by day 10, that is, 0.38 [95% CI (0.29, 0.47)]. These results are consistent with either a rapid progression in severity, prolonged hospital care, or high case fatality ratio among AKI Stage-3 patients, significantly exacerbated by COVID-19 infection.