The Dynamic Theory of Homicide: Adverse Social Conditions and Formal Social Control as Factors Explaining the Variations of the Homicide Rate in 145 Countries

Abstract

Cross-national comparisons of crime across the world consistently show that homicide rates are higher in more impoverished countries. However, the role of formal social controls as mediators between social conditions and homicide has never been investigated across a large number of countries. To provide data on the efficiency of criminal justice systems across the world, we found 1,223 experts and had them fill out a questionnaire, providing data for 145 countries. Results from structural equations models (Amos) show that adverse social conditions (collective and individual poverty, inequality, and youthfulness of the population) downwardly affect the level of formal social control (application of the rule of law, low corruption rate, effectiveness of the criminal justice system, and satisfaction with the criminal justice agencies). Low levels of formal social control lead to higher levels of homicide. In other words, the effect of adverse social conditions on homicide is mediated by formal social control.