The Dynamic Risk of Heavy Episodic Drinking on Interpersonal Assault in Young Adolescence and Early Adulthood

Abstract

This study examines the extent to which variation in violent behaviour can be explained by variation in drinking patterns in late adolescence and early adulthood using panel data of regular drinkers aged between 16 and 29 in England and Wales. Multilevel models explore individuals’ propensity to commit assault controlling for their drinking behaviour. Results suggest that males and younger people are more likely to commit assault offences and that around 60 per cent of the variation in assault is between people, the remainder being within people between occasions. Heavy episodic drinking is a significant predictor of assault in all models. Collectively, the findings point to a periodic association between drinking patterns and violent outcomes, supporting evidence of other forms of contemporaneous association.