The Dynamic Relationship between the Investment Behavior and the Morgan Stanley Taiwan Index: Foreign Institutional Investors' Decision Process

Abstract

This research employs VAR models, impulse response function, forecast error variance decomposition and bivariate GJR GARCH models, to explore the dynamic relationship between foreign investment and the MSCI Taiwan Index (MSCI–TWI). The estimations of the VAR, impulse-response functions and predicted error variance decomposition tests show that stronger feedback effects exist between net foreign investment and MSCI–TWI. In particular, our results demonstrate that the MSCI–TWI has the greatest influence over the decision-making processes of foreign investors. Also, we see that exchange rates exert a negative influence on both net foreign investment dollars and the MSCI–TWI. In addition, US–Taiwan interest rate difference has a positive influence on net foreign investment dollars and a negative influence on the MSCI–TWI. As for asymmetric own-volatility transmission, negative shocks in the MSCI–TWI tend to create greater volatility for itself in the following period than positive shocks. Our research indicates an asymmetric information transmission mechanism from net foreign investment to MSCI–TWI markets. Moreover, the estimated correlation coefficient shows that MSCI–TWI and net foreign investment dollar have a positive contemporaneous correlation.